Canadian Weather Centre - Blog Outreach @ Wordpress - By Amateur Meteorologist Nicholas Tam

Southern Ontario - First of all, I would like to apologize for not been promptly updating my blog and the GTA weather centre. Life has been very for me these days. I had exams, summatives, and a forecasting contest. So please forgive me for not updating my blog.

The thing with Tuen Ng festival that I mentioned on CWC (Canadian Weather Centre) really works. There is a Chinese proverb, “After the May Festival (Tuen Ng Festival is in May of the Chinese Calendar), you can safely store away your winter clothes”. This year’s Tuen Ng festival happened to be on June 9, 2008, and already the daily high of that day was into the low 30s, with humidex even higher.

Southern Ontarians have certainly enjoyed a 4 day long heat length. In those 4 days, average temperature of the city stayed around 25 C, with the coolest day being on Saturday. However, all 4 days had daily high temperature above 30 C, with humidex values of 40 C or higher. As a result, heat alert (and extreme heat alert for Monday), humidex advisory, and smog advisory had been issued for all 4 days. Record breaking temperatures are all across the province. London and Winsor respectively broke their temperature record, as a result of this warm surge of air from the Texas area. The low pressure originated from the Texas area brought the local, hot and unstable air mass with it, and invaded Southern Ontario. This air mass, as we currently speaks, is moving into Atlantic Canada. Atlantic Canada will experience temperature in the 20s (a slightly cooler value than what Ontario and Quebec experienced, because geographically, the provinces are more northerly, and the Atlantic Ocean also plays a major part in moderating the temperatures).

As a result of all of these heat, there were daytime (convection) thunderstorms. On Sunday and Monday, these thundershowers were a major issue in Southern Ontario. Consequently, severe thunderstorm watch/warning and tornado watch was issued in Southern Ontario throughout Sunday night and Monday night. Heavy downpours were reported, and rain was falling at a rate of 10 mm/hr at some locations across southern Ontario. Numerous funnel clouds were also reported. There was one in a dense residential area of Keele-Finch in Toronto. In some of the northern townships, suspected tornadoes ripped off roofs and torn down trees. Southern Ontario (excluding anywhere south of London) had not have a major tornado since the Tornado in Barrie in 1985. The same thing happened during the overnight hours of Monday / Tuesday. Trees cut off powers in some locations.

Thankfully, the wild, hot weather patterns are over. This morning in the early rush hours about (0700-0800 EDT), a cold front came through much of the Toronto area. The Toronto area did not see much severe weather because of lack of daytime heating when the front came through. All the residents saw were high winds and moderate rain. However, as the front makes its way into Eastern Ontario during the noon hours, the thunderstorms were supported by the daytime heating, and hence a severe thunderstorm watch was issued. No damage reported yet.

Behind the cold front, comes the cooler air from the prairies. The Prairies have been experiencing below normal temperatures. As this air comes into Ontario, the temperature will drastically drop back to seasonal. For the Toronto area, that would be around 23 C, with a nighttime low of 15 C. Finally, we can get some quality sleep without the heat!

Want more heat? Well, sorry to disappoint you, my readers. But the long-term forecast models are not looking good. It seems like we are in for some “Prairie Weather” for next week, with wet weather and temperature in the mid teens. However, that is still far way off, and I will keep you posted on that.

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Southcentral Ontario - I haven’t been posting a weather blog post for a long time. This is a much anticipated blog entry for my readers, and thank you for checking daily on my blog. I hereby apologize that I had not been updating my blog. This is because I am busy with the Wundercast contest on Wunderground. It is a forecasting contest available Wunderground members. So, here comes my blog entry! Well, it seems like winter is not losing its grip just quite yet. We are almost into June and there is still a risk of frost in Southcentral Ontario. The main area of concern is Muskoka, Parry Sound, Grey County, and areas in higher grounds, such as Haliburton Highlands. These areas are at high risk of seeing frost developing tonight. Yesterday, temperature soared up to the mid 20s across Ontario as a result of a push of warm air from the Great Plains of US. Today, however, a return of the arctic air cools everything down. Yesterday night, a cold front sweeps through much of Southwestern Ontario, triggering an issue with the Severe Thunderstorm Watch last night. Much of Southcentral Ontario saw rainfall amounts up to 5 mm. Behind this cold front, is arctic air from Hudson Bay. For everyone’s information, the Hudson Bay is beginning to thaw right now, as the locale is beginning to see above 0 temperatures. In fact, nowadays for daytime high temperatures, it is extremely rare to see daytime highs of negative digits unless you are north of 75 degrees N. However, this airmass from the Hudson Bay area is cool enough to cool down an area that had previously witnessed mid 20 temperatures, and thus throughout today, we were seeing departing clouds, and high winds. These will be a major factor for tonight’s frost. Most of Central Ontario only hit a high of around low teens for today, and with the overnight hours, temperatures may dip as low as 0 in some locale. The clear skies and dying winds will support the formation of frost, as dew freezes into its solid form. The clear skies allow heat to be lose faster than ever. The GTA can expect temperature at around 2 to 4 C for tonight, and as we speak right now, Markham, ON is already down to 5 C. To the north, where the temperature is cooler and has an higher elevation, frost might be even more significant. However, for areas closer to the Great Lakes, for example, the town of Penetanguishene, which is at the shore of Georgian Bay, the risk of frost is lower because the lake is able to “modify” the local temperature. The lakes are warmer than the nighttime lows for tonight. Inland areas would not be as lucky, and get ready to shelter your plants (ummm… it’s kind of late now, but worth a try), as frost kicks in tonight. MY WEATHER WEBSITE: (Still under construction, any feedbacks?) Bookmark my site at www.canadaweather.piczo.com.

Yukon ; Northwest Territories ; Nunavut - First of all, I apologize for not been writing my weather blog since April 23. I had been spending this time in trying to edit my website. Those of you who are interested, can click on the “Canadian Weather Centre - Blog Outreach” link above.

During this time I had been away from editing my blog, a major weather pattern change happened in the North. Noticeably, the North had significantly warmed up as we enter May, and some parts of the Arctic begins to receive almost 24-hour sunlight.

For areas south of the Arctic Circle, daily temperature highs have been reaching to the positive single digits. For traditionally colder areas (because of the colder Labrador Current flowing past), such as Baffin Island, the local temperature have been reaching as high as 5 C. Wet snow had been falling in the area, and it is forecasted that the local temperature may even reach as high as 11 C by the end of this week.

Towards the west shore of Hudson Bay, cold arctic air had been persistent in the area, and hence the coldest spot of the nation had been in these areas for the past 2 weeks. The locale also reached 0 C in some cases (i.e. Arviat, NU). Note that places such as Boothia Peninsula, Bathurst Inlet, are still way below the freezing mark with temperature around the negative double digits.

As we progress west to Yellowknife and Hay River area, the temperature had been holding steady at around 5 C for the past 2 weeks, when the warm air from Arizona and Texas attacked Alberta and Saskatchewan. The warm air was, at one point, so strong that it pushes the jet stream as north as Yellowknife. However, currently, the jet stream is nowhere near the 60th Parallel. The north has warm temperature solely because of the longer daylight hours.

The Yukon - Alaska Border, the westernmost frontier of Canada, is even warmer. Whitehorse had been reporting temperature in the positive double digits. And like Yellowknife, the reason for this warm up was that the longer daylight hours, invasion of warm air, etc.

Looks like the North is set for summer, but Southern Canada, hmm, not really. Southern Canada’s temperature had been lingering in the double digits. Unlike April, Southern Canada’s temperature had been holding steady around 13 to 19 C. Whereas in April, Southern Canada’s temperature had soared as high as 30 C. One notable example would be Val Marie, Saskatchewan, which hit 29 C. This temperature still remains as the warmest value in Canada for 2008.

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National - This blog entry is probably already covered in the news. Wacky weather we’re having here across Canada, eh? Canadians have probably heard that it is snowy and frigid cold in the west, while blazing dry and hot in the east. Well, more wacky weather seems to be on the way, a switch of pattern in place! This is in store for next week. I’ll explain more later in this entry.

Currently, a warm air mass that moved from the foothills of Alberta and into Eastern Canada stays stagnant in Eastern Canada. Meanwhile, chilly cold arctic air sweeps across the Western Prairies in order to replace the already moved warm air mass.

As of now, the warm air mass continues to advance north and east. The air mass is driven by the cold air from the west. There is currently several boundaries between this heat and the bonechill temperature. Much of Southern Ontario has already experienced the first one. As of 6 PM EDT, the front is pushing towards the Ottawa / St. Lawrence River Valley, scattering a thundershower or two. The front has not much use of all, frankly. The front is only responsible to change the wind direction, while only dropping Toronto’s high tomorrow by only 3 C. There will be a stronger front during the weekend. This front will provide possibly heavy thundershowers (not necessarily severe thundershowers). Ahead of this front, warm air (like the Eastern Canadians are experiencing now) will continue to push up north and east. Behind this front is the bone chill cold temperatures from the prairies. This front will be a major weather maker for the weekend, and I will not be surprised if hail is reported. Behind this front, temperature will drop significantly. It is forecasted that for next Tuesday in Toronto, that cold rain will fall with a high of only 2 C. Forecasts also suggest possible wet snow in the suburban areas of Toronto and Muskoka regions. Winter again, Ontarians?

It looks like if this warm pocket of air continues to push north and east, it looks like that areas as north as southern Baffin Island, Iqaluit, Apex, can achieve temperature as high as 5 C. The current forecast models suggest the leading edge of the warm air will reach as far north as Qikiqtarjuaq, and later move into parts of Southern Greenland. This can be some major thawing for some Arctic residents.

Alright, now let me explain the switch in patterns. We already understands the cooling trend for Eastern Canada next week. I’ll explain the warming trend for the West. This next warming trend is not going to be very impressive, but enough to bump the temperature in the Prairies up to the high single digits to mid teens. Currently, we are seeing a warm gulf of air near the shores of British Columbia, as well as south of the border near Washington State. These gulfs of air will eventually make way to the Prairies and the temperature will hence be bumped up. For example, temperature of Calgary will reach to 13 C by next Tuesday. Massive snowmelt is entirely possible, so beware of overflowing streams and flooded roadways.

See the pattern switch? While the east is bathing in heat for this Thursday (April 24), the west suffers from the bone chill temperatures. Next week, however, switch in patterns. The east will be suffering from cold rain and wet snow, while the west sees partly cloudy skies and temperature in the mid-teens. Well, I can only conclude with three words, EVERYTHING IS FAIR!

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Southern ON (in particular GTA) - The long anticipated heat wave from Western Canada has finally arrived in Ontario and Quebec. This heat wave had pushed the mercury up as high as 29 C when it hit Saskatchewan on Tuesday. Now, finally, this air mass has struck much of Ontario, Quebec and parts of the Maritimes. In fact, the warm air is expected to stay within this locale for at least until mid-week next week. A stationary front has been formed to “protect” the locale from the cold air, but it is evident that this front is slowly pushing towards the east. During the time the locale is in the warmth sector, the locale can expect temperatures anywhere from 15 C - 28 C (or at least 5 C above seasonal average).

Markham, Ontario had reached a high of 26.9 C earlier today, setting this the record of the highest Ontario temperature so far of the year. Other “hot locals” include St. Catharine (26 C), Windsor (24 C), etc.

One thing that is worth noticing is that the daily high temperature today across much of Southern Ontario matches to what most of Florida is experiencing today. In Miami, the forecasted condition is partly cloudy with a high of 25 C, while Markham (or the GTA) achieved sunny skies and a high of 27 C.

There is also a general cooling trend across Canada. It is also noteworthy that Alberta is in for another spring snow event, up to 15 cm of snow can fall in Calgary area. This pocket of cold air will eventually move east, and Southern Ontarians cold expect cooler than normal temperatures about 1-2 weeks from now. It is forecasted that the temperatures then will only hit a daily high of around 5 to 15 C (10 degrees below seasonal to seasonal).

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Alberta; Saskatchewan - After a long cool-down, and dull days (consistent cloud covers brought by troughs after troughs), finally sunny and hot days arrive!

A low pressure system situated near the coast of Queen Charlottes Island is tracking its way along the jet stream. To the east of this system, are warm, southerly, desert air from Arizona and parts of Texas in United States. This pushes the jet stream way to the north. It is forecasted that it is even possible for the jet stream to reach Beaufort Sea by Monday. Even Yellowknife, Northwest Territories may experience temperature as high as 11 C on Monday.

While this is good news for Alberta and Saskatchewan, it is, in fact, a bad piece of news for West Coasters. Heavy rain and winds are expected on the West Coast. Environment Canada had issued warnings to the locales earlier today.

Back to discussing the low pressure system. As the system advances towards the East, the warm air follows the low pressure system. The core of the warm air, has a high of 40 C in Texas! Right now, as of 17:09 MDT, Calgary experiences a temperature of 16 C; Edmonton experiences a temperature of 18 C. This is such a contrast to the previous snowfall on Thursday. Major snowmelt is expected, as the 23 cm of snow that had fallen on last Thursday melt under the warm 18 C and sunshine. Rivers can easily break its banks. For local residents, it is advised to move further up to higher grounds. It will continue be warm for Sunday in much of Alberta.

This system will continue advance to the East, and so will the warm air. By Monday, much of the heat will move into Saskatchewan, while Alberta is left with a cold front, cooling down the locale. By Tuesday, much of Alberta will cool down slightly back down to seasonal temperatures. Some non-severe thundershowers may be expected with the cold front. Meanwhile, Saskatchewan will be scorching in this summer’s heat. According to the models, it looks as if the hot air mass’ core will move as north as South Dakota. As a result, it is possible for Regina to reach 26 C as a daily high on Tuesday. For my personal forecast, I think the national warmest spot for Monday will be around Estevan in Saskatchewan, where the temperature might reach as high as 30 C (this is the extreme value, of course, the actual temperature for that day can be anywhere between 23 C to 30 C)!

By Tuesday, it is Manitoba’s turn. This time, the heat’s core moved back down south, and slightly weakened. As for Saskatchewan, once again, the temperature will return to slightly above average value (as opposite to way over average values). On Tuesday, Winnipeg can reach as high as 23 C (forecast calls for 20 C, but I think anywhere between 17 C to 23 C is possible).

By Wednesday, it will be Ontario’s turn. Without any more description (I am sure you are bored with my descriptions), Toronto will reach 15 C, and warmer down towards Windsor, Sarnia, and London.

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Windsor - Quebec Corridor, ON / QC - It is feeling more like May in Ontario and Quebec! Warm southerly flow brought by the warm front, which arrived in the morning hours for much of Ontario, and the noon hours for Eastern Ontario and Quebec, had brought the temperature up to 20s and upper teens! Windsor, hit 21.4 C yesterday, while in the Markham Weather Centre (my personal weather station), we hit a 20.0 C at 15:57 EDT, making it the warmest day so far in the season.

This is all thanks to the warm front, which brought some heavy thundershowers this morning across Southern Ontario (and noon for Eastern Ontario and Quebec). Behind it, a warm gust of southernly air from Texas and the Gulf of Mexico settled in. In the very heart of this airmass (which is in Texas), the local temperature soared up to 40 C!

Well, good things won’t last long. A cold front have already swept through the Greater Toronto Area, as well as southwestern Ontario before we knew it. The front settled in these area during noon hours, when the area briefly clouded over, followed by the current sunshine. The winds shifted rapidly from southerly to westerly, and of course, with this, a stronger wind speed is recorded. Temperature will not rise any further for the rest of the daylight hours, and will drop to 3 C (for the GTA), as of tomorrow dawn hours.

After this warm shot of air, we have to deal with wintry conditions. It will be as if we have returned to early March in some cases on Friday. An incoming Colorado Low will stay south of us, but north enough to keep our precipitation as rain. Temperature will dip as low as 2 C (daytime high for Friday across the GTA), and a possible wet flurry or two during the overnight hours. We are expecting the low to linger across the weekend, dumping around 25 to 35 mm of rain throughout the weekend. A misery and cold weekend in store! More details will come later (I have a headache to deal with, and this wet snow business….)

As for the rain/snow line, the rough line will be drawn near the shores of Lake Huron, through Goderich, Wiarton, Owen Sound, Collingwood, Barrie, in through northern Peterborough County, eventually making its way to Renfrew County and Chelsea, Quebec. North of this line can experience primarily a snowfall event, accumulating as much as 10 to 15 cm in parts of northern Muskoka, and Parry Sound. Wow! So much for having temperature in the teens in the area today, then a wintry snow on Friday! Let’s face the truth, winter is back! (momentarily, not for long, and of course, more details to come)

P.S. Birthday special delayed… because of heavy schoolwork… I’ll find some time later…

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P.S. : Notice I changed the blog theme to spring, any feedbacks?

For many Ontarians, this blog entry will be a piece of good news! It looks like as if spring has arrived across much Ontario. Well, at least, temporarily, and at least, for the next week or so.

Temperatures in the past few days have been well above the freezing mark. Yesterday’s daytime high temperature at my home weather station was way beyond the expected. It soared to a high of 13 C yesterday, with mainly sunny skies. Similar story goes on for today, the daytime temperature soared to 5 to 8 C across much of the Greater Toronto Area.

It was all thanks to the warm front, which brought us some snow on Thursday, accumulating less than 2 cm. That warm front kicked in southernly winds, as well as it brought some of the warm air from the Gulf of Mexico. It looks like the warm air will stick around for quite a bit, at least until next Wednesday or so.

Recent weather models suggest a return northerly flow for tomorrow (Sunday) as well as Monday. However, due to the strong sunshine, the temperature will not go down drastically, but rather, linger around the freezing mark. While the forecasts suggest around -3 to 0 C values, I have confidence that temperature in open areas (not near the lake, as the lake is still freezing cold, and can affect the local temperature) can reach as high as 3 C for Sunday/Monday.

Then, next comes will be the surge of warm air from an incoming low pressure system. I will have more coverage on this system later. It looks like, for now, that we will start this system as snow, then gradually switching over to wet snow, eventually giving way to showers. All these transition of precipitation will happen on Tuesday. On Wednesday, we will see scatter showers, as we enter into the warm sector of the low pressure system. Temperature will soar as high as 6 C for much of the Golden Horseshoe, with double digit highs possible in extreme southwestern Ontario. This day will be the peak of spring conditions. The freezing line will “move” as northerly as Moosonee, along the southerly shores of James Bay. Hence, we can see, this is a major shot of warm air.

Cold front will then sweep through much of Ontario on Thursday, and will give way to some snowfall on the Easter Weekend.

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Vancouver, BC - While the eastern Canadians are cleaning up their snow (see my picture taken in Markham, Ontario — about 20 to 40 cm had fallen in the locale), west coasters are dealing with a rainstorm!

A storm flowing from the Pacific Ocean is bound to hit southwestern shores of British Columbia, and British Columbians, get ready for a strong Pacific Storm. As of 7 AM PDT Monday, the system is now situated approximately 1000 km west of Victoria, BC. The storm will move quickly west-north-west ward, and it seems like everyone on the West Coast of Canada will see rain. In particular, the heaviest bands of showers will hit the most populous region of British Columbia. With the rain, we can see strong onshore winds, and that can create high tides, low-lying elevation floods, as well as mudslides towards the mountains. Widespread warnings and advisories are issued for British Columbia.

As of now, Vancouver is already seeing light rain showers due to the head bands of the system. Upwards to 30 to 50 mm of rain is possible for Victoria, Vancouver, and nearby areas.

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Winter Storm Watch had just been issued to much of Southern Ontario. Southern Ontario, Southern / Eastern Quebec, New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia, and Newfoundland will be a target for the upcoming winter storm to hit. According to the 18Z GFS, by the end of the next 72 hours period, on a 20:1 ratio, the snowfall amount is going to total up to 20 to 40 cm, depending where you are. With such a rough sketch of the system right now, it is impossible to determine the exact snowfall value.

Many forecasters are “betting their money” on this storm, as to this storm will dump over 30 to 60 cm of snow across Eastern Canada. However, as of 18Z GFS, I am not seeing anything remarkable and impressive, hence, my prediction will stay around 20 to 40 cm, and the outcome may even be slightly lower. I’ll revise my prediction if there’s any sudden changes to the models.

Currently, the system is now situated over Texas, and is dumping snow to cities like Dallas, and surrounding areas. The system is expected to “dip” south, dipping into the Gulf of Mexico, where it “sucks” up its moisture, then ride along the jet stream to meet the arctic air, and releases its moisture as snow for much of Canada. For all of Ontario, Quebec, and western parts of New Brunswick, this will be an all snow event. It is when we get to anything east of the New Brunswick, we will see a mess of mix precipitation and rain. The 0 C 850 mB line is projected, like the last storm we’ve seen a few days ago, and anything east of that line will see rain.

Right now, it looks like the most populous part of New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island is in for a major freezing rain event. The freezing rain periods could prolong for up to 10 hours! (By the way, it is now just a rough sketch, more accurate forecasts come tomorrow). Looks like most of Nova Scotia, including the Cape Breton, and Newfoundland is in for rain. The Northwest corner of Newfoundland, parts of extreme Eastern Quebec, and parts of Labrador, will see this as all snow.

Currently, this is my proposed draft of snowfall amounts:

Southwestern Ontario (London, Windsor, Brantford) - 5 to 15 cm
Southcentral Ontario (Toronto, Niagara, Hamilton) - 15 to 25 cm
>>> NOTE: Some forecasters are suggesting 30-45 cm of snow for Southern Ontario.
Southeastern Ontario (Kingston, Ottawa, Cornwall) - 20 to 30 cm
Southwestern Quebec (Montreal, Sorel, Sherbourne) - 25 to 35 cm
Southcentral Quebec (Quebec, Trois-Rivieres, Shawanigan) - 25 to 40 cm
Gaspe Peninsula; Western New Brunswick (Bathurst, Gaspe, Rimouski) - 30 to 40 cm
Eastern New Brunswick (Moncton, Fredericton, St. John) - 10 to 15 cm PLUS 10 to 15 mm of rain
Nova Scotia (Halifax, Dartmouth, Yarmouth, Amherst) - Trace to 5 cm PLUS 25 to 35 mm of rain
Prince Edward Island ; Anticosti Island; Magdelene Islands - 15 to 25 cm PLUS 5 to 10 mm of rain
Eastern Newfoundland (St. John’s, Gander, Conception Bay South) - 2 to 8 cm PLUS 10 to 20 mm of rain
Western Newfoundland (Corner Brook, Stephenville, Port-aux-Basque) - 5 to 15 cm PLUS slight risk of rain
Northwestern Newfoundland; Labrador; Eastern Quebec (L’anse-aux-meadows; Sept-Iles) - 15 to 25 cm

A more detail analysis and forecast of the storm will be posted tomorrow. Right now, just be head’s up that a storm is coming to Eastern Canada.

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